With the election hysteria settling down, we have a few thoughts. As it appears today, just about a week after Election Tuesday, it looks like we will have a split government with Democrats holding the Presidency and the House of Representatives while the Republicans remain control in the Senate. This is, of course, assuming nothing changes materially between now and the inauguration.
History has told us that markets have performed best while having a split government and having a split government is thought to be a large contributor to the positive market activity we have seen in the days following election day. Having a split government could make passing large legislative changes such as, corporate tax hikes, personal tax increases, and further company regulation, much more difficult. If something were to get done in that regard, odds are it would be much more moderate when compared to what may have been passed while having one party control government.
One other positive we see is that another stimulus package is likely to be rolled out soon. There is some consideration that this package could be more robust with a Democrat in the White House than if Trump were to hold the office but that is yet to be seen. The past stimulus package did help many Americans keep businesses up and running or promote spending which is a large driver of the U.S. Economy. We do not feel we are out of the woods yet in regards to the COVID-19 pandemic, however it was announced on Monday the 11th, the Pfizer vaccine seems to have a 90% effective test rate two weeks after the second dose. Also, many economic indicators are out ahead of what many thought possible in March of this year and for those reasons, we are optimistic.